Let’s be clear, this is a #late_review. I can’t use this
blog, in this specific case, to inspire and affect social
change and allow leaders to see the errors of their ways.
Because that’s happened before. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. No it
hasn’t. I have an IP address tracker on this thing and it
hasn’t been hit on in two months, much like me (actually I
haven’t been hit on in far, far, far longer).
Let’s be clear on a number of things; 1) I have no life. 2) I
have no will to get one. 3) I haven’t got an Economics degree
(but I’m working on it so does that count? No? Rude). 4) I’m
using the opinions of people that actually know what they’re
doing and interpreting them as best I can in light of what has
actually happened. 5) This will be written in mind of what has
actually happened, and not as an idealistic look at what should
have. Well, it’s gonna cover the should-have, then reject it.
So the Brexit is a referendum about whether or not Britain
should leave the EU. Not too much of a problem, except that the
agreements and other legislation that comprises the EU is
complicated, so extraction from it will take time and money and
mean that people are very confused and concerned about the
future of the UK and it’s trading partners and international
trading relationships. That’s economically. Socially, leaving
the EU is seen as a rejection of immigrants and immigration; and
what this means for the UK isn’t precisely clear although it has
been implied that the deportation of EU migrants will be made
far easier. The fact that this mentality is the driving force
behind the ‘leave’ campaign is worrying as it, like the current
political situation in the US, shows a rise in
anti-intellectualism; where voters reject sound logic because
‘it’s boring’ and vote in manners more consistent with having
good soundbites and snappy points, even if the points themselves
are dodgy as shit …
The final outcome of the referendum is a
long whistle-blow and a red card. No, that’s soccer. Britain
voted to leave the EU by 51.9% to 48.1%. That’s quite close
actually and it does mean there is still hope. So, unto the
economnomnomnomics …
Anywhoozles, if the UK had voted to stay in the EU, very
little would have changed; this is in many respects what I
expect everyone involved in the referendum or affected by it in
any way was preparing for, even the people wanting the UK to
leave (Boris Johnson’s exit press conference seemed very odd for
a man getting exactly what he wanted …). Nobody actually really
knows how a super-union of super-rich and super-poor countries
would work. Basically people from the super-poor countries moved
to the super-rich countries and were employed by middle-class
people there because they were cheaper than the working class
people, who got pissed off but were told to stop being racist …
I think it’s fair to see how the problems were created in
hindsight. The other major
Outcome of leaving the EU: Let’s be clear, there are valid
reasons for leaving the EU; the fact that the EU’s Parliament is
not democratically elected, and unaccountable to the people they
control. Similarly, there are European laws that supercede
national laws and may not have ideal outcomes for running a
country exactly how leadership wants to.
So what will
actually happen when the UK leaves the EU on the M4 or A5.
Short-term, the world economy will probably crash (but ehhhh who
cares about that), but in the long-term (I’m talking ten years
or so) the UK will probably have fixed its trade situation and
remade any law it lost by leaving the EU. In this long-term
scenario, I suspect the UK will be better off because in the EU
as it currently stands (economics alert) the bottom bit does
stuff that the top bit pays for. This disparity of incomes is
worrying when you consider that large financial events have
greater impact on poorer countries than richer countries, and
tying these countries together could feel a little like jumping
off a bridge strapped to a lead weight.
Let’s total up the
damage from the last two days; The pound has fallen to a 30-year
low, Scotland’s pushing for another independence referendum, and
this time I’m on their side (did I go on record last time?
Probably but I can’t remember – I definitely said they should
stay in the UK because it would isolate Scotland were they to
leave. OH LOOK, the UK’s done that to itself all on its fucking
own). There are talks of Ireland re-unifying so Northern Ireland
can remain in the EU, and it seems a logical extension to say
that this vote has legitimised a massive amount of ‘YOU’LL BE
GOING HOME SOON’ racism in a massively multicultural
environment.
Isn’t the adage ‘don’t fix what ain’t broken’? Or do snap the
world economy like a dry twig. Basically the level of ire and
disrespect currently aimed at American bankers should now be
redirected to ‘Leave’ voters. Although it seems like a petition
for a second referendum is gaining popularity and Parliament
will have to respond to it. So we’ll see. The way to rebuild
trust isn’t by speaking gibbertwat to people. It’s by making
promises and sticking to them. There’s a reason Nick Clegg’s a
high-ranking politician anymore. There’s an Autotune song,
actually;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUDjRZ30SNo. There was a
quote by the leave campaign that ‘350 million pounds a week go to
the EU and could be used to fund the NHS’. Or something like
that. Nigel Farage disowned that particular statement they’d
used for *years*, fairly well straight away after the vote. So
….. who made up evidence? People didn’t in this case want facts
of whether to stay or leave the EU, they knew what they wanted
already and adjusted the facts to suit, and entirely failed to
acknowledge the other side’s concerns. Both camps are guilty of
this.
I’m trying to find positives, and I’m fairly sure that there
will be positives to leaving … in ten years when the dust
settles. But in the immediate short-term this is a fucking mess.
Funny how 36 hours can flip the world, and still blame the
world’s problems on young people taking too many Instagram
photos. I don’t know. This whole thing makes me so sad.
And
on that bombshell …
TLDR; Pitfalls of the politicking: Mostly racist from
the leave camp, mostly technical gibbertwat from the stay camp.
The leave camp has promised outrageous things and the stay camp
has tried (and failed) to rebuild trust in politicians. Net
result, they fucked shit up and it’s possible this will be fixed
in the long term, but for now it’s just a massive mess.
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